Introduction
Cleaton answers one question about a pool, in a form both humans and contracts can consume: how long can its liquidity be expected to hold, and how confident is that estimate?
Argued in full in the whitepaper at §1.
Total value locked tells you how much is in a pool right now. It tells you nothing about whether that depth will still be there when you need to exit through it — and that is the property most allocation decisions actually turn on.
The measurement gap#
Two pools, both reporting $500M:
| Pool A | Pool B | |
|---|---|---|
| How it got there | Eighteen months of unsubsidised deposits | $17M → $500M in five weeks on a $29,000/day campaign |
| Median tenure | Nine months | Nineteen days |
| Concentration | Largest holder 4% | Top three hold 61% |
| Campaign expiry | None | Eleven days |
A human analyst separates these in ten minutes with a browser. An agent cannot: the difference is not in any state it can read. As allocation moves to systems that consume only structured state, that gap stops being an analytics inconvenience.
Four dimensions#
Cleaton measures four properties of a pool and reports them beside one another. The table above is what each of them would have caught.
| Dimension | The question | What it reads |
|---|---|---|
| Depth | How much is there, and how much of it is standing on emissions? | Headline TVL as the sources report it, times ρ for the rented share, discounted by the horizon for the durable share |
| Durability | How long should it hold, and when does the money paying for it stop? | The signed horizon where one stands; otherwise the incentive share of yield, which needs no model and covers far more pools |
| Movement | What has the depth been doing since we started keeping history? | A daily snapshot per pool, storing the day's low and high rather than only its close |
| Exitability | How much of it could actually leave right now? | Supplied minus borrowed, in a lending market. Null everywhere else — for an AMM that needs curve maths per venue, and a modelled number here would not be the exact one this dimension is for |
Four layers#
Measurement is the first of four layers, and it is the one that runs. The product Cleaton is building on top of it separates a liquidity position into two independently tradable claims — principal and future liquidity yield.
LIQ → pLIQ + yLIQ| Layer | Question | State |
|---|---|---|
| Intelligence | Where is liquidity needed? | Live — pools measured hourly across three chains |
| Markets | What should liquidity earn? | Partly live — lending markets read from their contracts; no underwriting |
| Split | Can the position be separated? | Not built — no standard, no token, no contract, no merge |
| Exchange | What are principal and yield worth? | Partly live — real quotes and exact exit capacity; nothing of Cleaton's listed |
What you get#
Durability is the dimension that carries a signature. One call, four values, and a signature over all of them.
getAttestation(pool) → (horizon, confidence, expiry, signature)| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| horizon | Days the pool's liquidity is expected to stay above the retention threshold |
| confidence | Calibrated coverage — 0.7 means 0.7 against the published record, not a model's opinion |
| expiry | When the attestation itself goes stale. Distinct from the horizon |
| signature | EIP-712, recoverable to a registered attester |
The claim is falsifiable, time-bounded, cryptographically attributable and economically backed. Everything else Cleaton exposes is a different way of branching on those four values.
Where it is pointed first#
The first attestations are about Robinhood Chain pools — a chain running concurrent incentive campaigns against public, dated expiries, which is the case this method was built for and a test it can fail in the open.
Contracts deploy where consuming contracts already are: Base or Arbitrum first, with a Robinhood Chain mirror after. The attestation format is chain-agnostic; only the covered universe is a choice.
What Cleaton is not#
Not a rating. A short horizon is a statement about duration under current incentives, not a judgement about a protocol, its team, its code or its governance.
Not a yield forecast. The horizon is about liquidity persistence. Price and return prediction is a different and much harder problem, deliberately out of scope.
Not custodial. Cleaton never moves funds and holds no position in anything it scores. A durability oracle that also allocates has an interest in its own outputs.
Where to go next#
If you want to see a response, start with the quickstart. If you want to know whether the number can be trusted, start with calibrated confidence — that is the page that explains why the confidence is not simply the model’s own probability.